If, six months ago, you asked any Connecticut resident, including myself, whether or not Chris Dodd would serve another term as our Senator, the answer would almost certainly have been an unequivocal yes. Even after his frankly idiotic bid for the Democratic nomination for president and the Countrywide mortgage scandal that he still claims to know nothing about, reelection for Dodd seemed a sure thing. But then, as incumbents seem wont to do at times, Dodd went and got himself caught up in another, even worse scandal, this one related to the AIG bonus mess.
Even so, the Dodd name is so impenetrable in Connecticut politics (Chris’ father, Tom Dodd, served in Dodd’s seat before him). Dodd seems committed to continuing on as Connecticut’s senior senator, but there is a growing list of potential challengers who want to see Dodd kicked to the curb. From his own party, there is Roger Pearson, a Greenwich Democrat who once served as the town’s first selectman. Pearson has already formed an exploratory committee to challenge Dodd for the Democratic nomination, but insiders give him little chance of unseating the longtime incumbent in a closed primary.
On the Republican side, however, big names are quickly lining up in order to get a chance to challenge Dodd in a general election. The clear frontrunner at this point is former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, who represented me in the 2nd district until, with the help of many Tufts students, Joe Courtney (A’75) took out the incumbent in the closest race of the 2006 cycle, winning by a final count of 83 votes [disclaimer: I volunteered for both of Courtney's campaigns and interned in his district office in the summer of 2007]. After that narrowest of defeats, many expected Simmons to try again in 2008, but he stood aside to allow Sean Sullivan to challenge Courtney, and the results was a sweeping win for the incumbent.
Simmons right now is leading a crowded field, but not by much. In the most recent poll, conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal blog DailyKos, Simmons ended up with 40% to Dodd’s 45%, and State Sen. Sam Caligiuri took 30% to Dodd’s 51%. Most of the difference, it seems, comes from name recognition. 82% of those polled had no opinion of the lesser-known Caligiuri, who is a rising star in CT Republican ranks. Beyond these two, who have both formally announced their candidacies, much speculation focuses on the likely candidacies of former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley, and 2004 Dodd challenger Jack Orchulli.
So is Chris Dodd a lame duck? In the first quarter of this year, Dodd raised an impressive $600K+ total. But…there’s a little more to the story. Dodd raised only $4250 from 5 Connecticut residents, pulling everything else from out of staters. This is troubling for a 30-year incumbent, to say the least. This will likely be one of the most closely-watched senate races in the country in 2010, so stay tuned for updates. Maybe Dodd will even give me a job on his campaign (probably only if he’s REALLY in trouble).
-Will Ehrenfeld
